Nolan McLean Is Really Good At Throwing A Baseball, But You Knew That Already

In the small (but scintillating) preview we got of Nolan McLean in 2025, we saw flashes of a future ace. We saw curveballs that have never curved quite so much, sinkers that sink at an alarming rate, and sweepers that defy the laws of physics. To nobody’s surprise, it is the same story so far in 2026.

McLean currently sports a 99th percentile pitching run value. The breakdown on that: he's in the 98th percentile in fastball run value, 88th percentile in off-speed run value, and 78th percentile in run value. If that stat means little to you, just know that those numbers means that the rookie right-hander is among the best pitchers in the league at throwing every type of pitch. Not too shabby, huh?

His 38 strikeouts is the seventh-most of all qualified pitchers. By all metrics, McLean can be considered at the forefront of the NL Rookie of the Year race. In the last 10 years, only four pitchers have won the award (Luis Gil and Paul Skenes in 2024, Devin Williams in 2020, and Michael Fulmer in 2026) but if there is ever a pitcher to run away with it, its McLean.

McLean’s sinker is currently tied for second in pitch run value. The pitch only allows a .192 batting average and has generated a 25% strikeout rate. McLean’s sinker is his go-to pitch in terms of getting ahead and putting hitters away. The sinker produces a ridiculous 5.6 inches of induced vertical break, which is just comical for a sinker. For a pitch that starts outside and ends up at the stomach of a right-handed batter, it's about as effective as you'd expect.

We still have yet to see the full breakout of McLean’s curveball. He throws that the least of his six offerings, though it's currently resulting in a .056 batting average. His Uncle Charlie famously spins as much as any single pitch in baseball, consistently registering between 3,300 and 3,450 RPMs. The difference between McLean right now and the Cy Young contender of the future is a more consistent attack pattern with his two big breakers.

McLean’s only current metric that does not look absolutely bonkers is his chase rate, a measly 24.6% that only ranks in the 17th percentile. Of his 38 strikeouts, 13 were via a watched third strike. In that sense, you could argue that hitters aren't chasing outside the zone simply because they can’t pick up his pitches out of the hand. That's what's making Mason Miller so effective right now, and such a trait would be insanely potent with McLean's deep and powerful arsenal.

His xERA (1.94) and xBA (.173) are both among the best expected figures of any starting pitcher. On a struggling New York Mets roster that's still working to climb out of a hole dug by that notorious 12-game losing streak, McLean is one of the few bright spots of the roster. His outings are starting to be anticipated by fans the way Jacob deGrom’s were during his run with the Mets. That's a bold comparison to be sure, but one McLean is inviting with his brilliance on the mound.