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At the end of April, you would have assumed that any monthly Mets’ pitching ranking would include Nolan McLean. He posted a 2.55 ERA and 2.20 FIP, and had the strikeout (33.3%) and walk rates (7.4%) to back it up. But you know what they say about assuming.
Unfortunately, in May, McLean was a shell of his April self. Driven by a step back in command, he was torched for a 6.10 ERA and 5.56 FIP. He walked more batters, got fewer strikeouts, and gave up six long balls. Now, despite the Mets’ most talented pitcher struggling mightily, the staff, as a whole, was incredibly strong.
Exiting April with a team ERA of 4.17, the Mets pitched to a 3.43 ERA in May, and a 3.05 ERA sans-McLean. Needless to say, the other guys stepped up, particularly the trio we've highlighted below.
Ranking the New York Mets’ Best Pitchers in May
#3: Huascar Brazobán
One of my favorite elements of baseball is the hot reliever. In a sport so inherently random, relievers, more than any other position, are at the mercy of randomness. Sometimes, it feels like a cruel joke, as two consecutive meltdowns undo years of hard work. On the other end of the spectrum, to keep the cosmic balance, you can have a month like Huascar Brazobán.
To put it simply, Brazobán shouldn’t be pitching as well as he has, but sometimes the almighty smiles upon a low-leverage reliever. Over 15.2 May innings, he racked up a 2.30 ERA despite a strikeout rate of 20.6% and a walk rate of 14.3%. On top of that, he had a left-on-base percentage (i.e., strand rate) of 66.7%, which is well below the league average of 72.2%. And while I want to say his .125 BABIP is all a mirage, his Statcast expected ERA is 1.76!
The secret sauce for Brazobán is a deadly sinker and change-up combo, which induces spades of weak contact and completely offsets an inability to limit free passes or get strike three. When everything is going well, like it has this season and in May, he’ll rack up outs in a way that doesn’t even seem possible. For now, Brazobán is one of the Mets' best pitchers, and they ought to ride his hot streak until someone figures out how to square him up.
#2: Christian Scott
By FanGraphs WAR, Christian Scott was the Mets' best pitcher in May. Over 29 innings, he racked up 0.9 fWAR and a 2.73 ERA. His 29.6% strikeout rate helped to offset an 8.8% walk percentage, and he limited hitters to a single home run. In a month where Nolan McLean struggled, the Mets desperately needed another starter to step up, and Scott did just that.
While Scott’s surface-level performance was exceptional, he only ranks second for a reason. He far exceeded his expected ERA of 3.93, and he threw those 29 innings over six starts, maxing out at 5.2 innings against the Marlins on May 24. Five-and-dive starters are valuable, but consistently getting through six innings is the benchmark for elite pitching. So, while on the surface Scott looked elite, underneath the hood, he left a little wanting.
Fortunately, Scott’s inability to consistently avoid free passes isn’t likely to be a huge issue long term. Throughout his minor-league career, he routinely posted excellent walk rates, and he probably just needs an adjustment period at the top level.
#1: Luke Weaver
Luke Weaver was an absolute monster in May. Over 11 appearances and 12.2 innings, he allowed exactly zero runs. Needless to say, a 0.00 ERA is a good way to be named pitcher of the month, and his underlying metrics support his run of dominance. Weaver posted a 1.73 FIP and 1.88 expected ERA in May thanks to 31.4% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate, a 23.3% hard-hit rate, and a 27.4% infield fly-ball rate. When you rack up whiffs, limit free passes, minimize contact quality, and get infield pop-ups, you’re going to get a whole bunch of outs.
On top of Weaver’s pitching excellence, he was incredibly clutch. His Win Probability Added led all Mets pitchers at +1.48, as did his average leverage index when entering the game of 2.11. When the game was on the line, Weaver came in and got the job done, every single time. While he’ll eventually give up a run, Weaver has firmly established himself as the Mets’ bullpen ace.
As much as it would be defensible to move Weaver into the closer role, he’s probably more valuable to the Mets with his current job. More games are won and lost based on what happens with a runner on first in the seventh inning than on what happens after trotting out for the ninth with nobody on. Weaver’s May was excellent and has him looking like the bullpen stud he was two seasons ago in the Bronx.
Should Nolan McLean rediscover his form, something I’d bet heavily on, the Mets could have one of the better pitching staffs in baseball. Christian Scott is pitching like an elite fourth starter, Freddy Peralta continues to get outs, and the bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season. The rotation still looks one starter short, but unlike most teams, they have a host of internal options who could readily claim a spot. After a disastrous April, the Mets' pitchers came up big in May.







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