Mets Would Be Wise Not To Give Up On Francisco Alvarez, Who Took Another Step Forward In 2026

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Mets Video

The New York Mets’ roster is full of former top prospects. Guys like Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, and Francisco Lindor all fit that description and have had long, successful major league careers. But there’s another Francisco who’s still trying to put everything together: Francisco Alvarez.

The 24-year-old catcher hasn’t quite reached the level many expected when he was one of the top prospects in baseball a few years ago. However, there have been plenty of glimpses of what he can become, and I think we saw more of those flashes during the 2026 season. Across 420 plate appearances, Alvarez hit .233 with a .311 on-base percentage and a .710 OPS.

Those numbers aren’t particularly inspiring, and his 99 OPS+ suggests he was basically a league-average hitter. But while the surface-level production wasn’t anything special, there was plenty to like about what he did at the plate this season.

For starters, Alvarez consistently made hard contact. His average exit velocity of 90.8 mph ranked in the 80th percentile among major-league hitters, while his hard-hit rate was even better, landing in the 86th percentile. Pair those with a barrel rate in the 96th percentile, and the underlying numbers suggest he probably deserved better results than he actually got. His expected slugging percentage was 32 points higher than his actual mark, as an example of just one obvious area in which he's due for positive regression. Not many hitters consistently hit the ball as hard as he does, and that kind of quality contact gives him a solid foundation to build on.

The problem, however, is that he doesn't make enough contact. Alvarez has struggled with the swing-and-miss part of his game since reaching the upper levels of the minor leagues, and 2026 was no exception. Both his whiff and strikeout rates were career lows this season. He swung through more than one of every three pitches he offered at and struck out in more than three of every 10 plate appearances. Both numbers ranked in the sixth percentile or worse among qualified hitters.

That's a tough combination for any batter to overcome, especially one who relies on power to do most of his damage. Plenty of power-first hitters struggle with strikeouts because they're willing to sacrifice more contact in exchange for louder contact. But Alvarez needs to find a better balance if he's going to maximize his offensive potential.

I'd also like to see him get the ball in the air more often. His fly-ball rate has hovered around 35% over the past couple of years, and he's paired that with a relatively low line-drive rate. Given how hard he hits the ball, getting more balls into the air could help him turn some of those hard-hit balls into extra-base hits and improve his overall production.

Of course, Alvarez's development isn't just about what he does at the plate. As a catcher, there's another side of his game that needs attention, and his defense behind the plate remains a work in progress.

The biggest issue this season was his ability to block pitches in the dirt. Alvarez finished with minus-13 blocks above average, the worst mark of any major-league catcher. It's an area where he's struggled throughout his career, but the numbers were particularly concerning in 2026.

However, it wasn't all bad defensively. He was a strong pitch framer, giving the Mets some value in an area that doesn't always show up in traditional statistics. He also took a step forward when it came to controlling the running game, throwing out 27% of opposing basestealers—that was a career high for him. Teams are beginning to respect his arm more than they have in the past, and when they do test him, he had a lot more success than most catchers would.

Overall, I don't think the surface-level numbers tell the entire story of Alvarez's 2026 season. His offensive production was underwhelming, but the quality of contact he made was encouraging, and he provided some real defensive value outside of his struggles with blocking pitches. There are still areas he needs to improve. He has to make more consistent contact at the plate, find ways to elevate the ball more frequently and become a more reliable presence behind the plate. Those aren't minor adjustments, but they're also not impossible hurdles for a 24-year-old catcher to overcome.