Mets Bright Spots: Austin Warren Has Arrived

Amidst the New York Mets' scuffling to start the season, the bullpen has actually performed exceptionally well. They currently rank ninth in MLB in ERA (3.64) and third in strikeouts (177). The only problem is that the Mets' relievers have been overused. They’ve pitched 165.2 innings, which is the eighth-largest total in the majors.

Some of that success is coming from a pitcher who has never seen a consistent role out of the bullpen since making his major-league debut in 2021 with the Los Angeles Angels. We’re talking about Austin Warren, who’s in the midst of his sixth big-league season, but hasn’t pitched more than 20.1 innings in a single campaign thus far.

Warren pitched for the Angels from 2021 to 2023 before being designated for assignment in February of 2024. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2023 after only pitching in two games. Warren survived the winter with the Angels, but was designated for assignment in February of 2024.

The San Francisco Giants picked him up a couple days later but didn’t get activated until July as he continued to recover from UCL surgery. The Giants called him up in August where he’d log 10.2 innings pitching to a 1.69 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Warren stayed in the Giants organization until January of 2025, when they designated him or assignment and he found his new home with the New York Mets.

Austin Warren's Strong Results with Mets

Warren has been with the Mets organization ever since they claimed him last spring. He saw a lot of brief stints last year in the majors only pitching 9.1 innings, but he threw 50.2 frames with the Syracuse Mets.

Jumping ahead to this year, Warren has already pitched 11 innings which is his most in a season since his 2022 campaign. He has been effective in relief, owning a 0.82 ERA to go along with a 1.09 WHIP. He is striking out 29.5% of batters, equivalent to a 10.6 K/9 ratio. It’s still such a small sample to look at, but he’s performed well.

His 0.82 ERA is amazing, but will be tough to sustain. His underlying peripherals suggest he could maintain solid production even if he regresses, hence his 3.30 FIP and 3.22 SIERA. His expected earned run average sits at 3.52 which is good, but again showing where his real results would likely be with a larger sample size. He could improve his walk rate that currently sits at 11.4%, a below-average mark that, if improved, could make Warren an even more reliable bullpen arm.

Two Pitches That Look Good, but Will Regress Over Time

While Warren has featured six differently tagged pitches this year, he relies mainly on his sweeper (51%) and sinker (21%). Both of these offerings are getting the job done right now, but the underlying numbers suggest that they might start to get hit harder as he logs more innings. Overall, batters are making contact with 93.2% of Warren’s strikes, putting him in the bottom second percentile.

His sweeper is his best offering looking at the pitch traits and shape. It’s averaged 85.4 mph with -15.4 inches of horizontal break. Warren’s sweeper is getting an incredible 2776 RPM’s of spin. It’s his best pitch by Stuff+ (113), per TJStats. Opponents are hitting just .200 against the pitch, but it has a .290 expected batting average. On top of that, it’s only generating an 18.2% swing-and-miss rate, signaling Warren’s sweeper is not as effective as it could be. The pitch is also responsible for a below-average .347 xwOBA.

When Warren isn’t throwing his sweeper, he goes to his sinker more often than not. It grades out a tick below average (99 Stuff+) but has done its job thus far -- batters have yet to record a hit against it. Still, keep in mind he’s only thrown it 36 times and has poor underlying numbers. Warren’s sinker is only generating 8.3% whiff and also has a poor .348 xwOBA on its ledger.

Warren also throws a four-seam fastball and curveball, which have both been generating good expected numbers, but given their extremely limited usage, it's hard to draw any firm conclusions at the moment. This is a guy who lives and dies with his primary offerings, which might make him due for regression as opposing hitters see his best stuff more often. Nevertheless, he's been one of the most valuable relievers in the Mets' bullpen thus far, making him a much-needed win on David Stearns' track record.