Luke Weaver's May Resurgence Is Proof Things Can Get Better For Mets

Luke Weaver, one of the New York Mets’ stellar relief pitching signings in the offseason, allowed two runs in an April 30 outing against the Washington Nationals, completing a seven-game stretch in which he allowed eight earned runs in seven frames, for a 10.29 ERA.

After that, however, his improvement has been undeniable. Following that rough stretch that started on April 9 and finished at the end of the month, Weaver has been excellent and has managed to lower his season ERA to a fine 3.22 (with a 3.38 FIP) in 22.1 innings.

That’s certainly an improvement over the 3.62 ERA he had last season, one that masked a rough September in which he posted a 9.64 ERA. As you can see, the lack of a reliable breaking ball might always result in some inconsistency, but the right-hander has been able to right the ship in recent weeks for the Mets and he deserves credit for it.

A Perfect Stretch

Since that April 30 outing, the changeup artist has been perfect in May. This month, he has an immaculate 0.00 ERA in 10.1 innings, with six hits allowed, four walks, and a whopping 15 strikeouts. His 1.63 FIP over that span suggests that it has been more skill than luck, too.

We can divide Weaver’s 2026 campaign so far into three parts: a successful start in which he posted five straight scoreless appearances until April 7, the aforementioned struggles between April 9 and 30, and his most recent stretch of dominance.

Again, consistency might not be his middle name, but when Weaver is healthy and has gotten into a nice rhythm, he is a solid setup man, even if his repertoire is a bit unorthodox.

If he can somehow make enough strides with his cutter, he might be able to increase his ceiling. It’s much easier said than done, though.

Weaver’s four-seam fastball and changeup have returned a .269 and a .228 xwOBA, respectively. The cutter, on the other hand, has a much worse .536 xwOBA. This metric tries to describe performance based on quantity and quality of contact, which suggests that this specific pitch has lacked command and has been rocked by hitters.

Luke Weaver Has His Limitations

The problem with Weaver is that while his changeup has some filthy movement, we have seen what hitters can do to it when they are sitting on it. So, he needs elite fastball command or for that cutter to improve if he’s going to hit his ceiling.

Despite having stretches in which he looks borderline unplayable, Weaver has certainly salvaged his career with his move to the bullpen. The Mets decided to invest, and all things considered, it’s fair to say their faith has been rewarded with his performance so far.

Even with the occasional meltdown, Weaver has proven he can be a solid eighth-inning guy or a high-leverage weapon for the Mets. He has certainly been on a nice run in May, and for the sake of the team, they should hope that it continues.