Juan Soto Has Never Had A Better Chance to Win MVP

Juan Soto has achieved just about everything you can as an individual. He has six Silver Sluggers, is a four-time All-Star, has a batting title, a World Series ring, and a 15-year, $765 million contract. For someone who won’t turn 30 until October of 2028, Soto has already lived a full baseball life, but he still has one major milestone left to collect on his way to Cooperstown—an MVP trophy.

The New York Mets’ season might already be over. Following a 7-4 start, they embarked on an epic 12-game losing streak, which sank them to the bottom of the standings. Teams can overcome a 7-16 start, but it leaves them zero margin for error, and the 2026 Mets feel like they’re perpetually carrying a pot of chili into the office. The good news is that they employ Juan Soto. 

Calling consistency a superpower is boring, but for Juan Soto, it’s why he’s one of the best players in baseball and also probably why he doesn’t have an MVP. The simplest way to explain Soto is that he plays all the time, gets on base all the time, and hits for both contact and power. It’s why he has a career wRC+ of 160, the 19th-highest figure ever, just below some guy named Ty Cobb. 

Teams covet consistency—it’s why Soto is paid like a king–because it limits downside, but it also limits upside, and that’s tough in the era of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. While six to seven wins above replacement per season for a decade is worth three-quarters of a billion dollars, it’s not enough to win MVPs when you’re up against 10-WAR Kaijus. 

However, Soto might not need to have a truly transcendent season at the plate to forge an attractive MVP narrative. The Mets are truly in trouble, but none of it falls directly at Soto’s feet. During the Mets' 12 days of despair, Soto was out with a calf injury. He left the Mets 4-4, came back to find them 7-16, and as soon as he re-entered the lineup—poof, the losing streak ended.  

Baseball isn’t as simple as one player returns and everything is solved, but stories are. Should the Mets turn their season around, Soto will have a story worthy of an MVP. He’ll be the hero who saved the season. The man who guided a helpless, lost cause out of the depths of despair into the warm glow of the blustery, frozen hellscape that is October baseball in New York. 

Even as analytics have come to dominate baseball awards voting, I still think there is some romanticism left in the world. Part of the reason Ohtani has walked away with MVP after MVP is his story as a two-way player is like a tall tale. He’s The Natural, just living and breathing, and while the WAR helps, the story is just as intoxicating. 

If Soto produces his usual .300/.400/.500 triple-slash line, while dragging the Mets out of the cellar, that is a story that will transcend baseball media. It’s the oldest sports story of them all for a reason; people love it. And on top of that, he’ll have the underdog winds at his back.

No matter where the Mets finish this season, they’ll be underdogs. That’s their franchise heritage, and it’s the exact predicament they find themselves in. But Soto is also an MVP underdog. He has four top-five finishes, three top-three finishes, and came runner-up in 2021, despite leading Bryce Harper in WAR. He has been oh-so close to winning the award, but the stars just haven’t aligned for him (even though those in the media decide what the stars say). 

Before it’s all said and done, Juan Soto will very likely win an MVP award. He’s just too good, too young, and too consistent. But there’s a chance he’s this generation's Hank Aaron. Aaron, who finished his career with more home runs than anyone, never once hit 50 in a season, and only won one MVP. In fact, he never finished higher than third outside of his lone win. Aaron, like Soto, was a metronome of consistency, but only once did he lead his league in WAR. 

Perhaps Soto will consistently, excellently trudge through his career without that single transcendent season to capture voters’ imagination. Or perhaps, he’ll lead the Mets back from the brink, into the playoffs, and secure the one award that has eluded him. This is Soto’s best chance to win MVP, and all it’ll require is one of the great turnarounds in history. That’s no small feat, but that’s why it’s an MVP story.