How Carson Benge’s Adjustments Have Put Him on the Verge of a Historic Mets Rookie Season

His ability and talent to impact the game is something that has quickly turned Carson Benge into one of the most interesting young players in the entire league. He has stood out as a player with elite defensive and speed tools, standing out for the power and accuracy of his arm in the outfield (100th percentile in Arm Value and 99th in Arm Strength). His ability and explosiveness on the bases has taken him to the 92nd percentile. Offensively, Benge has displayed a brilliant ability to elevate the ball at the ideal angle (82nd percentile in LA Sweet Spot %), which supports an outstanding expected batting average (xBA) in the 89th percentile.

No matter how high the expectations around a top prospect are before debuting, reaching Benge’s accumulated playing time and doing it with that impact constitutes a very difficult challenge for a rookie, especially in New York. Benge has done it since he debuted and is on his way to completing an unprecedented season in franchise history. Have you ever wondered how many rookie hitters 23 or younger have achieved a 20-20 season with the Mets?

The answer is simple: no one has achieved it yet. It is likely that the name Darryl Strawberry came to your mind—it happened to me too. Strawberry, in his season at 21 years old when he won the Rookie of the Year Award in 1983, hit 26 home runs, but finished with 19 stolen bases.

Benge could be the first 20-20 player in Mets history if he gets those four home runs he is missing. He leads the ranking so far in bWAR and has the highest batting average. I am also excited to see that A.J. Ewing also appears here, but his power has still not been able to make enough of an impact. I do not rule out the possibilities of Benge being able to achieve it, but his adjustments after June suggest that he has focused more on expanding his ability to make contact. In a way, that is even more interesting to me, since Benge has gotten this far with that philosophy and, even so, has had interesting flashes of power. Eleven of his 16 home runs came in the first half of the season, when he hit .263/.326/.402, with a 104 wRC+.

That performance has taken a very interesting jump, as Benge has improved to .301/.350/.446 with a 120 wRC+ since the All-Star break. The major adjustment that changed the course of his season was when breaking balls stopped limiting his contact. It all began after June.

Benge reduced his strikeout rate by 11.5 percentage points, and by improving his contact, his slugging jumped from .291 to .417 against breaking balls. His Hard-Hit% rate also had an increase (up 5.3 points) and within the adjustment process, this led pitchers to stop throwing him so many breakers. Benge’s contact has improved against fastballs, with a jump from a .799 OPS to .955 from July to date, while his BABIP has reached its highest point (.436). In fact, if we considering his stats against any given pitch, Benge’s BABIP (.366) also stands out as the seventh-highest among all qualified left-handed hitters since July.

Even this month, when Benge’s OPS has fallen to .586 — his second-lowest this year after the .525 in April — his BABIP (.313) still does not seem to have collapsed. Everything responds to the way he has managed to make adjustments and know what his job is. He has no holes against any profile: he has a 103 wRC+ and .340 BABIP against left-handed pitchers, and a 112 wRC+ with .331 BABIP against right-handers. He has gotten at least one hit in 94 of his 139 games, with 35 of them recording at least one hit and a walk. He has been a young force that has been able to exceed the expectations of his prospect profile and still continues to show that he can improve.

Even if Benge does not make history as the first rookie 23 or younger with a 20-20 season, he has already become one of the players with the most influence on the future direction of the Mets.

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