Francisco Lindor's Power Is Back, Offering Mets Yet Another Promising Sign for the Future

The New York Mets own a winning record in August and are producing their best OPS (.775) in any month of this season. They have done it without a single plate appearance from Juan Soto, who last played on July 24 before going on the injured list. The Mets have risen from a disappointing first half of the season, when they averaged .234/.303/.381 with 4.1 runs scored per game, to a notable resurgence of .245/.320/.425 with 4.5 runs scored per game in the second half. Many factors have combined for the team’s offensive improvements, but one of the most important has been the recovery of Francisco Lindor’s power.

After coming off the injured list in late June, Lindor needed to work to get his swing back after a notable loss of power during his 105 plate appearances between March and April. In that first stretch, he posted a 91 wRC+ and just a .355 slugging percentage. The rhythm and impact of his swing at the plate have changed since then. Let’s explore how he has done it.

It would be enough to simply look at his 120 wRC+ to say that the adjustments have been considerable in this comparison. Now, look at the drop in his HR/FB rate to 6.5% before going on the injured list. Since returning to action, it has risen to 14.9%, an average that is closer to his career mark (14.3%) in the majors. His HardHit% also increased by 7.8 percentage points and his slugging is almost .100 points higher.

How has he done it? As the batted-ball metrics suggest, Lindor has regained the power in his swing when he pulls pitches. His Pull% rate has increased by 4.4 percentage points, while his Oppo% has dropped 6 points. He is also doing it with a greater reach in his swing, as he is making contact with more pitches outside the strike zone.

Of course, that does not fully guarantee that those pitches Lindor is reaching can be turned into productive hits. That is why the more interesting question is to discover how he has awakened his power. To do that, I set out to compare how he was producing with his swing when pulling pitches before and after going on the injured list.

On the left, we have his heat map before going on the injured list, and on the right, the stretch since he returned to the lineup. I took all the plate appearances in which Lindor hit against a left-hander, since the samples as a right-handed batter were very small during March and April. As you can see, there are several notable differences there; Lindor has been making better contact against pitches on the inner part of the plate, especially in the middle. At this point, I think his bat speed has been key.

In June, during the week Lindor played after returning from the injured list, he averaged 71.0 mph on his swing and a FastSw% of 8.1%. In July, when he began to find his rhythm and regained his confidence with more playing time, he rose to 27.4%. This August, he is averaging 24.3%. That recovery of power when pulling pitches can hardly be separated from a better identification of the pitches he needs to attack. Let’s look here at which pitches he is hitting better.

Francisco Lindor – Before vs After IL Pull Comparison

The .177-point drop in xSLG against four-seamers deserves caution because the March/April sample was much smaller. But the 18.3-point increase in HardHit% shows that the contact has been much more solid after his return.

Still, this only accounts for so much of his production. Let's look at the inverse situation (i.e., his impact when he does not manage to pull pitches).

The graph on the left belongs to his non-pulled contact, with the graph on the right the same as above just for visual reference. With the pitches Lindor could not pull, you can notice the drop in his xwOBA averages against high pitches and pitches tight inside the strike zone. However, I find it interesting that his swing continues to have life against pitches on the outside corner, both in the upper and lower parts.

Overall, hitting left-handed, Lindor has posted a .403 ISO this season when he pulls pitches. Even without being the best version of himself, his recovery has been notable since returning to action. In that stretch, the Mets have played to .500 (25-25), and although there is no hope that they will return to the postseason this year, seeing Lindor doing Lindor things at the plate is a promising sign for the future.