Cole Mathis Scouting Report: What to Expect From Newest Member of the Mets

Cole Mathis, aged-22 (and under one month from turning 23) was acquired by the New York Mets early Thursday morning in return for left-handed starting pitcher David Peterson. Mathis, a former second-round selection out of the College of Charleston in the 2024 draft, had a bit of a rocky start to his professional career, but 2026 has been a year in which the right-handed hitter has gotten on track.

At Myrtle Beach, the Chicago Cubs' Low-A affiliate, the first base prospect hit seven home runs in just 66 plate appearances, earning a promotion. At South Bend, the Cubs' High-A affiliate, Mathis posted a 116 wRC+ and even started a pair of games at the hot corner. Now a member of the Mets, what can fans expect out of the slugging prospect?

Cole Mathis' Strengths:

The thing that the burly first base prospect does best is in his plate approach. Mathis has a discerning eye and is not the kind of hitter to allow pitchers to get him out with chase pitches. So far, he's posted walk rates north of 13% at every level with no signs of slowing down. In Baseball America's preseason scouting report, they mentioned that, "He rarely expands the zone and does a good job of staying fairly aggressive on pitches in the strike zone." On top of that, his strikeout rate remains more than acceptable and bordering on "good." He did post an inflated 27% K-rate in 14 games to start the year in Myrtle Beach, but has since dropped below 23% in South Bend. You can expect a professional, hard-working plate appearance when the right-handed hitter steps into the box. 

Mathis also has some raw-power potential. Back in college, he posted some of the best batted ball data in the entire 2024 draft class and succeeded as well with wood bats in the Cape League. This is imperative, as Mathis just doesn't look like he's going to move off the 1B/DH pathway, so having raw power in his arsenal is a big thing. 

Lastly, the former second-round pick has had some decent success this year. He's posted a 116 wRC+ in South Bend so far, and while it's true he's only hit three round-trippers since his early-season promotion, his ISO of .229 and nine doubles suggests that he's not far from turning his solid production into something more as he taps into that raw-power potential. Doubles can quickly become home runs with the right adjustments.

Cole Mathis' Weaknesses:

Mathis was drafted originally by the Cubs as a third baseman, as the team hoped that they could convert him from first to third. On paper, this makes sense; he was a two-way player in college and he had the arm strength to do move across the diamond. One caveat; when the Cubs' selected him, he was already hurt and required Tommy John surgery. TJS doesn't affect position players like they do pitchers; Mathis missed the two months of post-draft time with Chicago but was immediately in the system last year. However, his transition to third has not occurred and it's safe to say he's likely no more than first baseman at any level.

What this means is that his pathway is incredibly limited. He has to not only hit, but mash at every level. A 116 wRC+ is not terrible, but you need your first base prospects to be hitting better than 16% over league average if you want a chance to be noticed. It's the nature of the beast; first base is just a really hard life if you aren't a killer at the plate. For him to break out, those doubles have to start turning into dingers and he's got to tap into the power potential more. 

Another issue is that Mathis was drafted with the idea that he could be a fast-moving prospect. With success with wood bats in his history, there was a belief in the Cubs' circles that he could be in Knoxville, Tennessee by the end of 2025, their Double-A affiliate. Instead, complications from TJS limited his season and he never made it above Low-A and an appearance in the Arizona Fall League. To date, he's still only in High-A. While that doesn't kill his stock by any means, his "fast-mover" status just never materialized and he's on a more normal pathway to the major leagues.

Cole Mathis Outlook With Mets

Cole Mathis is a prospect who has probably more value in his draft pedigree than on paper, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. There's a really fun player in there, one who's shown real pop with wood bats (albeit in college) and has some excellent batted-ball data in the past. He's proven in the past that there's real upside, he just hasn't always had a chance to show the same upside as a professional... yet. Because of that, you can look a this in two ways with skepticism and pessimism or with an eye to the future with optimism. 

If you're a glass-half-empty type, Mathis is an underwhelming first base prospect. His pathway to the MLB is narrow because of his position to begin with, and even with a mature approach, right-handed-hitting prospects who don't play anything other than first aren't great on paper. Perhaps the TJS surgery robbed him of some power in his elbow and it won't come back. This outcome puts him squarely in the second-division tier of upside and he still has to master a few levels before we think about him as an MLB option.

However, if you're a glass-half-full type, you're in luck because there is upside. He's a player who's spent time hurt which may have not sapped his power forever, but instead, temporarily. He did hit seven bombs in Myrtle Beach, which is an famously tricky place to hit in April. With nine doubles in 25 games in South Bend, you only need three of those to get over the wall before he looks far more interesting. This could be ability to get into an undervalued prospect who's on the precipice of breaking out and becoming (mostly) the guy the Cubs thought they drafted in the second round.

Generally speaking, this seems like fair value for David Peterson on both ends. The Cubs get a pitcher underperforming his peripherals and who will add a lot of ground ball ability to an elite defensive infield. The Mets get a prospect who has a narrow, but possible MLB pathway and who may still offer untapped upside as he works his way back to being healthy. It's likely that Mathis heads to Brooklyn to join the Met's High-A team to get acclimated. With a strong start, or when the team feels as though he's advanced enough, there's a realistic chance he ends the year in Binghamton with the Rumble Ponies.

Mathis may never garner top-100 hype because it's just hard to do as a first baseman, but he does offer MLB upside and for David Peterson in what feels like a lost season, that's a win for the Mets.