Let's Talk about... Corey F. Hart

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball Prospectus lists Corey F. Hart on its list of Ten Free Agents Likely to be Overpaid this winter.
Of course that's all kind of speculative since we don't know what each is going to get paid, but it's their guess.

There are two ways to look at Corey Hart, the free agent. On the glass-half-full side, he's a slugger who has hit at least 20 homers in five of his last six seasons, including 25 in his last three healthy seasons. He's also a career .276 hitter, so it's not like he's solely a power threat. On the glass-half-empty side, he's a poor defensive outfielder coming off missing a full season due to microfracture surgery on his knee (read: he's only a realistic option at first base, and he's been a below average one thus far). He also has seen his contact rate drop each of his last five seasons and is coming off a career high strikeout rate. Oh, and all those high home run totals were aided by playing in one of the top parks for power--his career slugging percentage is .539 at Miller Park and .446 everywhere else.

A one-year deal for Hart is reasonable for both sides, as it's a way for a team to minimize its risk and Hart to try and rehabilitate his value in order to get that One Last Big Contract. Unfortunately, there's probably a team or two out there willing to give him a multi-year deal, and with the amount of money likely to be involved, it's bound to be full of buyer's remorse by the time it's over. Life is tough for an tall, aging slugger and one team is about to find that out the hard way.


Follow the link and see that they stick Granderson & Ellsbury on that list also.