Adventures in Closerland

[Frayed Knot]

HahnSolo wrote: Soriano?

Nope.
He did lead the Nats in saves this season and the Yanx last year, but back in 2011 he was a mere $12 mil/yr set up man for Mariano.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Heath Bell?

[Frayed Knot]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Heath Bell?

2011 with Sandy Eggo
2012 for Miami
2013 for the Snakes

Big-butted Bell wound up losing the closer job about halfway through this season (he didn't finish 2012 at the Marlins closer either) but his replacement, Brad Ziegler, fell just short of catching him for the Arizona saves lead.



The Mets, btw, are one of Nine teams to have a different saves leader in each of the past three seasons:
RED SOX -- (2011 - 2013) Papelbon, Aceves, Uehara
ROYALS -- Soria, Broxton, Holland
ASTROS -- Melancon, Myers, Veras
NATIONALS -- Storen, Clippard, Soriano
METS -- Rodriguez, Francisco, Parnell
MARLINS -- Oviedo, Bell, Cishek
CARDINALS -- Salas, Motte, Mujica
ROCKIES -- Street, Betancourt, Brothers
GIANTS -- Wilson, Casilla, Romo

[Frayed Knot]

The results of my year-long look into closers and saves
(it�s not nearly as nerdy as it sounds - just a few minutes each day gathering the previous night�s results)

My motive behind this is mainly that I was just plain curious.
Simple raw save numbers and even save percentages are often flawed because obviously not all save situations are created equal. So in order to make them more equal-ish I chose to count only the single-inning saves that have come to define the modern save opportunity and closer usage.
IOW, I included only those situations where a fresh pitcher was brought in at the beginning of a close-out inning with a lead of three runs or less. No multi-inning saves; no saves where the closer comes in mid-inning w/runners on; none where he needs to get fewer than three outs.

And what I wanted to know about these saves were three things:
1) Was it a one, two, or three run save situation?
Obviously in addition to seeing what the overall odds for success are, those odds should be quite different depending on the size of the lead.

2) Was the save successful?
Doesn�t matter how ugly as long as the team got out of the inning with the lead and therefore the win.

3) Was the save �perfect�?
Since, in addition to complaining about how often their closer blows saves, a common complaint from fans is about how often their guy makes them sweat by putting runners on base. So I wanted to know how common the 1-2-3 inning was in one-inning saves.


What I found was this:

All Saves Combined - 1,239 Opportunities

Pct Saved	87.8%
Pct Blown	12.2%
Pct Perfect	35.4%

An easier way to look at this is that, out of every eight save opportunities:
- approximately three are saved in 1-2-3 fashion
- four are saved but with some degree of drama added
- and one of the eight is blown

Broken down further:

One Run Saves - 525 Opportunities

Pct Saved	80.4%
Pct Blown	19.6%
Pct Perfect	38.5%

Two Run Saves - 396 Opportunities

Pct Saved	90.4%
Pct Blown	9.6%
Pct Perfect	37.4%

Three Run Saves - 318 Opportunities

Pct Saved	96.9%
Pct Blown	3.1%
Pct Perfect	27.7%

So if you just want to round things off, what you should expect to get out of an average closer is about 1 blown save in every 5 chances when handed a one run lead, about 1 blown out of every 10 when given a two run lead, and the right to demand his immediate flogging when he lets a three run opp get away.

I suspect most fans would guess that the percentage of perfect saves would be higher to the point where 1-2-3 innings outnumber the flawed ones even though �Not Perfect� is more common by nearly a 2-1 margin.
One thing I found interesting was the higher pct of perfect innings in the closer games. One run saves were slightly more likely to be perfect than were two run saves and each was considerably more common than in three run outings.
Pitching to the score?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I do think PTTS happens but it's prolly impossible to quantify. You know, for example in a 1-run save you'd be less likely to challenge a slugger wheras the 3-run lead practically encourages it as a practice.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, I think a PttS claim makes a lot more sense in a one-inning situation then say the one the Jack Morris-for-HoF crowd makes in an attempt to explain his high-ish career ERA.
The last thing you want to do when coming in to a game with three outs to go is to walk a guy, something which could lead to more hittable pitches. That a single base-runner wouldn't even bring the tying run to the plate in a three-run game might explain why the biggest gap in perfect/not-perfect innings is between the two and three run leads while the gap between one and two is virtually non-existent.

It's also possible that managers sometimes don't always use their top reliever in three-run games. My little study here didn't discriminate as to whether the pitcher coming in fresh to start a close-out inning had the 'Proven Closer' stamp on his forehead or not. In some cases, and at least theoretically more often in three run leads, the guy being brought in could be someone giving the regular closer a day off.

[Edgy MD]

You should make a paper of this.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: You should make a paper of this.

I thought I just did.





Guys who led their teams in saves in 2013 but didn't start the year in that role
Uehara - Boston (Hanrahan)
Benoit - Tigers (Valverde)
Brothers - Rockies (Betancourt)
Jansen - Dodgers (League)

2013 saves leaders who didn't finish the year in that role:
Perez - Indians
Wilhelmsen - Mariners
Veras - Astros (traded)
Parnell - Mets (injury)
Mujica - Cardiinals
Bell - DBacks

[Frayed Knot]

Final installment here deals with one-inning saves in NYM games

Mets had 42 one-inning save opps and converted 37 of them (88%) including
19 of 23 one-run saves (82.5%); 9 of 10 two-run saves; and 9 of 9 three run saves
11 of the 42 opps (24%) were 'perfect' saves

Aardsma = 0 saves / 1 opportunity
Black = 1/1
Familia = 1/1
Francisco = 1/1
Hawkins = 13/14
Parnell = 21/24


On the other side, NYM batters had an opposing closer come in to try and shut down a game 48 times with Met bats spoiling 11 of those (77% save rate), including
7 of 18 one-run saves; 2 of 15 two-run saves; and 2 of 15 three-run opps.

So the bottom line is, that no matter how much we complain about our closers never being good enough or 'making us nervous' even when they are, NYM closers, despite losing their main guy and replacing him with a 40 y/o, survived those one-inning close-out situations at a rate just about even with the majors as a whole. That doesn't mean the bullpen as a whole was great (although it certainly got better as the year rolled on) but that in one inning duels they were just fine. Also that Met bats got to other closers more often then opponents got to ours, even to the point where there were only 10 three-run saves blown all season in MLB and Met bats were responsible for two of those.



Mets busted up saves by:

Apr 7 - Marlins - Steve Cishek -- Byrd�s 2-RBI single scores Tejada & Nieuwenhuis
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201304070.shtml

Apr 24 - Dodgers - Brandon League -- Wright�s 2-out single ties the game. Later won in the 10th on Valdespin�s GS
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201304240.shtml

May 3 - Braves - Craig Kimbrel -- Wright�s HR ties the game with one out. Mets win in the 10th
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL201305030.shtml

May 28 - Yanx - Marinao Rivera -- Murphy�s Double, Wright�s Single, Duda�s Single all with no outs
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201305280.shtml

Jun 16 - Cubs - Carlos Marmol (3 Run Lead) -- Byrd�s leadoff HR then Nieuwenhuis�s 3R HR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201306160.shtml

Jun 22 - Phillies - Jonathan Papelbon (2 Run Lead) -- Valdespin HR and latera Murphy RBI Single ties the game. Mets lose in bottom 9 on Frandsen�s HR off Torres
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI201306220.shtml

Jun 25 - White Sox - Addison Reed -- Wright scores on a 2-out dropped pop-up to tie the game. Mets lose in the bottom half (Hawkins)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA201306250.shtml

Jul 1 - DBAcks - JJ Putz -- Byrd�s leadoff double + Satiin�s single ties the game in the 9th. Mets win in the 13th
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201307010.shtml

Jul 4 - DBacks - Heath Bell & Chaz Roe -- Arizona scores in the top of the 13th, Recker�s HR off Bell w/2 outs ties it. Arizona agains scores in the 14th, Niewenhuis�s HR ties it. Mets lose in the 15th as finally the Snakes (Brad Ziegler) convert their 3rd save chance of the day. Zeigler pretty much becomes their regular closer after this game.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201307040.shtml

Sep 18 - Giants - Casilla/Romo (3 run lead) -- Santiago Casilla, then Sergio Romo, can�t hold a 3-run lead and Satin�s 2-RBI single wins in a walk-off.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201309180.shtml



Blown NYM one-inning saves:

Apr 29 - Parnell (vs Marlins) -- Double, Single, Sac Fly ties the game
Mets go on to lose in the 15th
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA201304290.shtml

Jun 4 - Parnell (Nationals) -- Three hits and a Sac Fly
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WAS/WAS201306040.shtml

Jul 22 - Parnell (Braves) -- Mets take a 1-0 lead into the 9th but Parnell gives up 3 singles and a passed ball.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201307220.shtml

Aug 2 - Aardsma (Royals) - In the first NYM save attempt after Parnell goes down, Aardsma gives up a leadoff double and eventually a game-tying Sac Fly in a game the Mets eventually won on Young�s HR in the 11th.
It was Aardsma's last save opportunity.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201308020.shtml

Aug 14 - Hawkins (2-run lead - Dodgers) - Andre Etheir�s 2R HR in the 9th tied the game in LA. Mets go on to lose in the 14th
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN201308140.shtml