Phils

[Frayed Knot]

Swan Swan H wrote: Since 2007 the Phillies have won 102, 97, 93, 92 and 89 games. To get to 89 wins, which is probably what they need to get in, they would have to win 52 of 78, exactly .667, or a 108 win pace. That's not a hot streak, but half a season at the same pace as the 1986 Mets. They need to be better than they have been in the past five years - way better, with one exception - over three full months to reach the probable lowest number of wins to get into the playoffs. They're dead.

The Phils went just 9-10 during the rest of July after this post.
But then, despite trading away Victorino & Pence prior to the deadline, turned in a 24-14 mark since August 1st including a 7-2 September

In all that's 33-24 meaning they'll need to close with a 19-2 record to reach Swan's 89 win threshold.
However, they have climbed to within one game of .500 and currently sit just 5 games out of the 2nd WC slot - behind both the Dodgers (4 games) and Pirates (2.5) in line.

It could be that it will take less than 89 wins to get in in the NL this year
So while it'll still take a real hot streak and some help for them to pull it off ... they're not dead yet.

[Zvon]

Frayed Knot wrote: The Phils went just 9-10 during the rest of July after this post. But then, despite trading away Victorino & Pence prior to the deadline, turned in a 24-14 mark since August 1st including a 7-2 September In all that's 33-24 meaning they'll need to close with a 19-2 record to reach Swan's 89 win threshold. However, they have climbed to within one game of .500 and currently sit just 5 games out of the 2nd WC slot - behind both the Dodgers (4 games) and Pirates (2.5) in line. It could be that it will take less than 89 wins to get in in the NL this year So while it'll still take a real hot streak and some help for them to pull it off ... they're not dead yet.

Isn't that something, that they are doing better since the trade? I did not expect that.

[Frayed Knot]

Put this another way:

- Suppose the Phils go 16-5
In order to snag the final WC slot the remaining contenders [u:16llzaps]would have to finish no better than[/u:16llzaps]:
StL -- 10-11
LAD -- 11-10
Pitt -- 13-9

and everyone else from Milwaukee (tied with Philly) on down would have to not out-pace the Phils


Not easy, not likely.
Also not umpossible.

[Frayed Knot]

Philly wins -- Dodgers lose -- Cardinals lose -- Pirates lose
aka: the cheese-steak version of quadruple happiness this September

Brewers also won to keep pace with the Phils and make this a double-improbable run for the WC
Both teams have identical 71-71 records and sit 4 games out of the #2 WC

[Frayed Knot]

It's one thing to go on a nice run towards the end of the season.
It's another thing to go on a nice run towards the end of the season [u:5ym3966r]AND[/u:5ym3966r] to get across-the-board help on an almost nightly basis.

Wednesday Results:
Phils win -- 15-5 over their last 20 games
Braves lose -- (10-10)
Cards lose -- (8-12)
Dodgers lose -- (7-13)
Pirates lose -- (5-15)

Another Quintuple Happiness day for Philly phans!

And of course the Phils only have to catch three of those four teams to snag a WC spot.
The funny thing would be to have them do just that - and then get passed themselves by the Brewers who also won last night and have also won 15 of their last 20 games and are tied with the Phils



WC Race
Atlanta
StL -5.5 games
------------
Dodgers - 1 back of StL, 6.5 back of Braves
Pirates - 3.5 & 8.0 back
Phils & Brewers - 4.5 & 9.0 back
D'Backs - 5.5 & 10.0

[bmfc1]

The MFP fan in the office next door is starting to glow. They trade away some key parts and start to do better. The Mets do nothing and fade away. ARGH!

[Ceetar]

This 'false competitiveness' from the Phillies is nice. Hopefully it lulls them into complacency this offseason thinking they're better than they are and all they do is give a setup guy way too much money.

[metirish]

Um, kid at a Phillies game

[G-Fafif]

At least the sign doesn't suggest the inverse.

[metirish]

and the Phillies lost



http://deadspin.com/5943354/kids-sign-at-phillies-game-if-i-can-beat-cancer-you-can-beat-the-astros

I'm surprised I haven't seen this picture on facebook.

[Frayed Knot]

Finally and officially dead