Ranking the 2011 NL East Starters

[Gwreck]

Did this last year as well. (Check out where Pagan and Bay were, compared to now).

C
McCann
Buck
Ruiz
Thole
Pudge

1B
Howard
Davis
LaRoche
Sanchez
Freeman

2B
Uggla
Infante
Emaus
Espinosa
Castillo

3B
Zimmerman
Wright
Jones
Polanco
Murphy/Bonifacio

SS
Ramirez
Reyes
Rollins
Gonzalez
Desmond

LF
Ibanez
Prado
Bay
Morse
Morrison

CF
Pagan
Victorino
Coghlan
Ankiel
McLouth

RF
Werth
Heyward
Stanton
Beltran
Francisco

[Ceetar]

The only one I have a real quibble with is RF. Are your assumptions cumulative? games played? As of right now I'd be Beltran at the top of that list, or second.

Actually, I might swap Ibanez and Prado too, but nitpicking perhaps.

I think Thole will move up two spaces this year, as will Bay.

I think Wright, Reyes and Ike all have (in that order) chances to take back #1.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Only passingly scientific, but let's add it up.

Pos	Team
	Atlanta		Florida		New York		Philadelphia		Washington
C	McCann	5	Buck	4	Thole	2	Ruiz	3	Rodriguez	1
1b	Freeman	1	Sanchez	2	Davis	4	Howard	5	LaRoche	3
2b	Uggla	5	Infante	4	Emaus	3	?????	1	Espinosa	2
3b	Jones	3	Mur./Bon.	1	Wright	4	Polanco	2	Zimmerman	5
ss	Gonzalez	2	Ramierez	5	Reyes	4	Rollins	3	Desmond	1
lf	Prado	4	Morrison	1	Bay	3	Ibanez	5	Morse	2
cf	McLouth	1	Coghlan	3	Pagan	5	Victorino	4	Ankiel	2
rf	Heyward	4	Stanton	3	Beltran	2	Francisco	1	Werth	5
Total	Sum	25	Sum	23	Sum	27	Sum	24	Sum	21

Nice, considering the alternative, but it looks like a wash (except that Washington is faking it at so many positions). But a big part is sorting out what the likelihood is of guys holding up and how good their backups are. Who is most likely to get hurt? Who is most likely to come along? Will Philly get their secondbaseman back? Will Washington get their catcher? Jones and Beltran may well give thier teams an all star season or give them nothing.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Ceetar wrote: I think Thole will move up two spaces this year, [...]

Nah, but 4th is ok, when you have 3 AS catchers in front of you. Buck could regress into a Barajas-scratch lottery-type hitter*, but Ruiz isn't gonna drop 30 OPS+ points to Thole.

*Hey Albilly, if you trademarked that phrase, you probably could have retired by now.

[metirish]

LF in the NL East is pretty shallow right? .

[Ceetar]

The Second Spitter wrote: Ceetar wrote: I think Thole will move up two spaces this year, [...] Nah, but 4th is ok, when you have 3 AS catchers in front of you. Buck could regress into a Barajas-scratch lottery-type hitter*, but Ruiz isn't gonna drop 30 OPS+ points to Thole. *Hey Albilly, if you trademarked that phrase, you probably could have retired by now.

I've never been a big fan of Ruiz. How about "closes the gap to make it less clear who's 2nd and who's 4th?" Honestly, given his rookieness, i'm not even sure Thole should be 4th.

[Gwreck]

Ceetar wrote: The only one I have a real quibble with is RF. Are your assumptions cumulative? games played? As of right now I'd be Beltran at the top of that list, or second.

Nothing scientific; just ordering the players based on how good they are relative to each other right now. Of course past performance and future expectations are factors in the evaluation but right now, Carlos Beltran is not a better player than Werth or Heyward. Maybe you could put him at 3 ahead of Stanton.

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: Ceetar wrote: The only one I have a real quibble with is RF. Are your assumptions cumulative? games played? As of right now I'd be Beltran at the top of that list, or second. Nothing scientific; just ordering the players based on how good they are relative to each other right now. Of course past performance and future expectations are factors in the evaluation but right now, Carlos Beltran is not a better player than Werth or Heyward. Maybe you could put him at 3 ahead of Stanton.

personally I disagree. But that's fine. It's almost time to prove it anyway.

MLB The Show 2011 has Stanton batting cleanup and the announcers talk about him like he's Albert Pujols.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

CATCHER

Buck has a career OBP of just about .300, the 20 HR from last year are his career high by a bunch, and he's just okay behind the plate, by all reports.

I can't see putting him ahead of the Thole/Paulino platoon. By year's end, assuming modest progress/regression (respectively) Thole himself should slide right past Buck.

LEFT FIELD

Flip Ibanez and Prado... and maybe Ibanez slots behind Bay (assuming the rib isn't a real "thing"). Ibanez was never a good LF defensively, and he's getting worse as he gets creakier; the power seems to be going, too. He's a lefty latter-day Alou at this point.

CENTER FIELD

Coghlan was iffy in LEFT. He's bound to continue the Marlins' fine defensive tradition in center this year... if not amplify it.