Niemann-Humber-Verlander

[Guest Edgy DC]

I stumbled across this on a recent search:

Q: LF from The Crane Pool Forum asks: Pitchers Justin Verlander, Philip Humber & Jeff Niemann were picked in consecutive order in last year's draft - #'s 2, 3, & 4 overall - and all, because they signed late, have essentially not yet thrown a pro pitch. Yet they turn up in very different places in the Top-100 list (Neimann = #20; Humber = #50; and Verlander not even on the list). What's the thought process behind the wide disparity? A: John Manuel: Niemann has the best combination of size, stuff and track record of those three; I personally don't think it's close. Humber performed better in 2004 as he was healthy when Niemann wasn't, and I admit I'm not holding his injuries (arthroscopic elbow surgery, groin pull) against him. Humber isn't far behind for me, I just don't think he has the makeup to be a No. 1 starter, and I think Niemann does, makeup and stuff. His ceiling is true No. 1 for me, Humber's is not. Verlander is just a completely different guy. He couldn't even dominate the Colonial Athletic Association. He throws harder than those guys and has nasty stuff of his own, but I don't see the aptitude or the makeup. For me, Verlander is a high-risk, high-reward pick, and I'm wary of the risk and wary of his track record.

Niemann is really turning a corner right now, and like Mike Pelfrey, finding a way to succeed without punching a lot of guys out, and who knows, maybe Humber becomes a stud without the elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery.

But man, when you're wrong about Justin Verlander, you're wrong indeed.

[metirish]

He only averages 17 wins a season ....who won the AL Cy Young last season cos this guy had a pretty good year....

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

[Guest attgig]

meanwhile, humber is in AAA for the royals. Also to note, Humber, Niemann, and Wade Townsend were teamates in college. Townsend was originally drafted by the o's but couldn't get a contract he wanted, so went back to school. then got drafted by the rays, but his career never really panning out.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

He only averages 17 wins a season ....who won the AL Cy Young last season cos this guy had a pretty good year.... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

Greinke did all right last year, too (as did "King Felix").

Humber's strikeout rates-- middling, considering his stuff-- were no great shakes even before the elbow problems. THAT was the knock on him, wasn't it?

[Frayed Knot]

Where the hell did you find THAT? That had to be from Feb-Mar 2005.

Niemann - as Manuel alludes to - was injured, and was so even at the time of the draft although he doesn't take that into consideration in his rankings. He later re-injured himself as a pro and is just now (late last season actually) getting on track.

His Verlander comments stun me. True that's easy to say with hindsight although I think I might have been surprised at the time too. He does indicate that Verlander is the higher ceiling guy ("high risk, high reward") but he was also the #2 pick for a reason and the Mets said (or leaked) at the time that he would have been their choice too if still there at #3. He also got to where he was going pretty quickly.

Oddly enough with Humber, I was just having a discussion elsewhere involving that year's draft with a guy citing this pick as an example of where the Mets reached for a boring & safe choice for budget reasons. He cited Niemann (and also Jered Weaver) as a better pick at the time although I could imagine the stink if, rather than seeing their recent picks get injured, the Mets simply started drafting pre-injured ones. My argument is that Humber was at or near the top of that year's lists all along and certainly wasn't an "under-slot" guy picked just to save money while obvious better choices were simply hanging around. The main problem was that the 2004 draft (esp the 1st round) turned out to be a notoriously lousy one overall.

[ashie62]

He only averages 17 wins a season ....who won the AL Cy Young last season cos this guy had a pretty good year.... http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml Greinke did all right last year, too (as did "King Felix"). Humber's strikeout rates-- middling, considering his stuff-- were no great shakes even before the elbow problems. THAT was the knock on him, wasn't it?

I don't believe that Humber threw with "plus" velocity before his arm problems.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The Mets (or rather Rick Peterson) also indicated that Humber was the only one of the three Rice-throwers that they would have picked.

[ashie62]

I'm going to need rice-throwers in October..

[Guest themetfairy]

Ashie62 wrote: I'm going to need rice-throwers in October..

Are you getting married?

[ashie62]

themetfairy wrote: Ashie62 wrote: I'm going to need rice-throwers in October.. Are you getting married?

October 13...Right around the corner..Thanks for asking**

[Guest themetfairy]

Mazel Tov!

[Guest Edgy DC]

Congratuations. We''ll make sure Humber, Niemann, and Townsend are there.