2ND BASE

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Edgy DC wrote: Lugo, Easley, and Valentin doesn't make sense. None of them entered this offseason expecting to sign a deal where they'd have to fight for a big-league roster spot.

Well in my scenario they all have a job, just not a job that'd keep them as busy as they'd like. Maybe that is the plan, though.

[Guest Edgy DC]

If I've learned anything these last twelve years, it's that Julio Franco will not go quietly into that dark night. Dude's got guaranteed money coming to him, and he's expecting to play.

I guess Lugo could also take a spot from a relief pitcher.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

It's 11 pitchers or else.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Lugo has also been offered arbitration.

[Vic Sage]

as i illustrated in another thread:

name (age - (`06 OPS) / (career OPS) / (career OPS+)
+Durham (35 - S) (.898) / (.797) / 106
+Aurilia (35 - R) (.867) / (.775) / 104
* Loretta (35 - R) (.706) / (.765) / 101
**Walker(33 - L) (.785) / (.786) / 98
+Valentin (37-S) (.820) / (.772) / 96
* Belliard (31 - R) (.725) / (.751) / 94
+Kennedy (30 - L) (.718) / (.730) / 92
**Lugo (30 - R) (.762) / (.742) / 92
+DeRosa (31 - R) (.812) / (.735) / 90

+ signed
* unsigned FA, not offered arbitration
** offered arbitration

I don't see why Lugo (who can get a full-time gig as a SS) is worth as much to the Mets as a 2bman (especially a part-time 2b/utility), when he's not appreciably better than other 2bmen still on the market (for whom no draft choice need be surrendered, and who'd likely be cheaper), like Belliard and Loretta. Frankly, i don't see him as even much of an upgrade over Valentin who, even if he falls back to career averages, is likely to outhit him.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I'm not arguing that Lugo is anyone's idea of a huge upgrade, but it's difficult to believe Valentin is really Plan A because:

1) There's little on the roster or in the minors constituting Plan B.

2) Valentin was more than adequate over the year, but rotten enough in April and in September to raise questions as to "the real Valentin," especially when you consider his age.

3) I think all along the Mets would have preferred Valentin as a LH power threat off the bench (after all they had burned through Boone, Hernandez AND Matsui before getting to him) and if he's Plan A at 2B, then we still need a LH PH.

So many reasons to have made a play for Durham. Is he that bad with the old leather?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Valentin, for what it's worth, had always been a very good --- sometimes excellent --- shortstop, before injuries set him back for a year and a half before joining the Mets. High power/low average types are generally not thought of as good defenders, but he always has been one, and was mostly more than good for the Mets at second.

Lugo's a useful plan B, probably as good or better an option than Easley. Hernandez and Gotay remain in reserve, though, with Gotay out of options.

I just don't know where these plan Bs are going to fit. I guess, if the Mets didn't bother promoting Gotay in September (and making him the 800th Met), he's not breaking camp with them under any circumstances, and they'd do well to try to move him now.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Valentin was terrific with the glove; that's his best argument for remaining at 2B. But Lugo wouldn't sign to be Plan B, and it still leaves the question as to how we're going onto the year without a LH pinch-hitter.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'd rather have Valentin pinch-hitting four times a game than Lugo begging to be pinch-hit for four times a game. Valentin also sucked as a pinch-hitter early in the year.

Lack of a lefthanded pinch-hitter sucks too, but we went through most of last year without one. I'm using my mental powers to ease Shawn Greeen into that role.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Green to PH would ease the crowding in the OF and give Chavez/Johnson/Milledge and even Valentin more action, and solves the PH issue. I like it.

But it still doesn't provide a solution if Valentin falters.

I don;t want to see this become like 2005 when we needed a 2Bman midseason due to injury/ineffectiveness but couldn't bring ourselves to buy at trade-deadline prices. I'm sure in 07 we buy buy buy but we'll pay pay pay.

[Vic Sage]

i agree that a better option than Valentin at 2b would be preferable, putting Jose on the bench as an all-purpose Utility/LHed PHer.

But my point was that Lugo is more valuable as a SS for another team (since his hitting is more respectable as a SS than a 2bman) and if we're going to have to bid against those teams (not to mention give up a draft pick) to sign him, I'd rather sign Ronny Belliard, who is equally mediocre but is likely to cost 1/2 as much as Lugo at SS, and he won't cost us a pick. Heck, i'd prefer Loretta for 1 year (for less $ and no pick) to a multi-year deal for Lugo.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

We could like, trade for Jose Vidro. Don't think Omar ain't got wood for that guy.

[metirish]

Word is the Cubs think he can play CF...I wouldn't want Omar getting into a bidding war with the Cubs or Boston.....

[Vic Sage]

Depending on what Nationals wanted for him, I'd take Vidro. He's a high injury risk, but a good player (much better than Lugo). And if he broke down, we'd still have Valentin to fill in.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think he's pretty broken down as it is.

[Guest sharpie]

Can't see how the Cubs think Vidro could play center field. He never covered a lot of ground and after injuries he's pretty immobile. He has great instincts and second and he can still hit but I can't see him coming to the Mets unless they want to field an all-second base team.

[metirish]

No they think Lugo can......

[Frayed Knot]

Problem w/Vidro is that he still has 2 more years ('07 & '08) to run on his deal (w/partial no-trade btw) at $8mil/per.

So you're looking at Lugo costing a FA contract $?/yr plus a 2nd/3rd round draft pick (maybe #60-90)
vs
Current, as opposed to future, players to get Vidro (maybe not much) plus, in effect, a 2-year FA-like contract at more than he's worth right now with all the injuries and age.

Not that those are the only two choices ... I'm just sayin'

[Vic Sage]

IF we can trade Green, Gotay and Bannister for Vidro + A-ball prospect (for example):
- the platoon of Johnson and Chavez in RF is unlikely to be less productive than Green, at a fraction of the cost;
- Vidro is backed up by Valentin, with Vidro's salary offset by trade of Green.

whereas, if we sign Lugo:
- he likely gets Juan Pierre type money (5yrs/$40-45m), hindering our effort to sign a frontline SPer,
- he is not a sure thing to be signifcantly more productive than Valentin;
- we still have to carry Green's declining bat/glove (and no place for Johnson or Milledge to get semi-regular ABs); and
- we give up a draft choice

now of course these scenarios have tons of assumptions, but depending on who we trade, i don't necessarily think Lugo is a better deal than Vidro. I just don't think Lugo is worth what he's likely to get in the current market, and we can fix 2b in other ways.

[Frayed Knot]

I wouldn't trade those players for Vidro OR pay that kind of money for Lugo.

[Vic Sage]

that's fine. then we've got Valentin at 2b, and we could probably sign Belliard cheap.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

You guys sure Vidro's done? Didn't throw up the power figures he did in Montreal but I'd attribute some of it to the bigger park. Always reaches base pretty well, gets his doubles, hits lefties well and is few years younger than Valentin. He also wouldn't hafta be a No. 3 hitter. I think he D is OK, or it used to be.

I kinda like Ralph's scenario but Green's got that tricky no-trade.

[Guest Edgy DC]

What I saw this season suggested his wheels weren't there any longer. And even accounting for that park, he's been hitting... like a secondbaseman. Laud to him for staying more or less on the field this season (126 games), but --- though he's only 32 --- he appears to have drunk from the wrong stream sometime after the 2002 season.

Season PA OPS+
1997 185 73
1998 245 62
1999 531 102
2000 663 129
2001 531 113
2002 681 126
2003 592 111
2004 467 116
2005 347 105
2006 511 93

[Guest cleonjones11]

Vidro's body is beyond the point of no return...kinda like my own.

[Frayed Knot]

Vidro's not necc DONE done, just no longer a $8mil/yr - more than Matsui money - more than double Valentin money - kinda guy.
For only 7 HRs w/a decent tho hardly great OPB (.350) and an aging & rapidly slowing body he'd better either come with a significant discount or at a small price in bodies in order to pick up the whole freight. Otherwise ... pass.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Unless (scenario 3) the Exponentials took on a bloated contract of their own, maybe Shawn Green's.

Just saying. And Green presumably has trade veto rights.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Mets, Lugo talking 4yrs/36 mills, sez FAN.

Numbers almost too specific to be "talking about," don't ya think?

[metirish]

WOW...more years than we thought and more money?...

[smg58]

No way he's worth that.

[metirish]

Lugo had a terrible time after being traded to the LA..and this is his reward?..