Francisco Alvarez Has Crashed Back Down To Earth After Hot Start

[Andres Chavez]

Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Back on April 15, we took a look at the Mets’ catching tandem and praised Francisco Alvarez for his offensive prowess. Back then, his 179 wRC+ ranked eighth in baseball among players with a minimum of 50 plate appearances. He was on top of the world, leading his team in home runs and showing why he is one of the best up-and-coming talents in the National League. He is, after all, just 24.

Since then, however, Alvarez’s offensive numbers have crashed, and his wRC+ is now barely above the league average, at 107. From April 14 until April 29, he hit a rough .139/.238/.167 with no home runs, only one run scored, and a 24 wRC+. Yes, you read that right. It’s not that he has been unlucky during that time, as his .201 wOBA is very close to his .219 xwOBA.

What's going on?

Francisco Alvarez Has Stopped Hitting the Ball Hard

What has happened to Alvarez since the middle of the month? Well, his 21.4 percent strikeout rate over that stretch isn’t alarmingly high, but his 28.6 percent hard-hit rate is alarmingly low, much worse than his 39.1 percent mark for the season and the 54.3 percent he had last season. He hasn’t been squaring up the ball for a couple of weeks now and his numbers have suffered as a result.

Alvarez is also expanding the zone a bit more this year. Last season, he had a 27.7 O-Swing%, or percentage of swings on pitches out of the zone. It’s up to 31.3 percent this year, and 32.7 percent since April 14.

There are other issues, too. This year, Alvarez has feasted on off-speed pitches (.569 wOBA, .482 xwOBA), much like last season. However, his .183 wOBA vs. breaking pitches has been a problem, and even if his .247 xwOBA against that specific pitch type suggests some positive regression is on the horizon, it’s still bad. He is also slugging just .333 vs. fastballs, down from .488 in 2025.

A Stunning Reverse Split Threatens To Sink Alvarez's Season

One curious development while looking over Alvarez’s stats and splits is his stunning ineffectiveness against left-handers. He is showing a reverse split, which is incredibly rare: against lefties, he is sporting a horrible 60 wRC+, while he is at 123 against righties.

Over the course of his career, he does have a higher wRC+ vs. righties, at 107, than he does while facing southpaws (102). However, this year’s gap is astonishing, and, frankly, puzzling.

Perhaps Alvarez has had problems picking up the ball against certain lefties at specific angles this year, or perhaps his approach against such pitchers has gone haywire. However, this smells like small-sample noise, which means his fortunes should change for the better, at least against southpaws. There’s no reason for his performance while facing lefties to fall so calamitously during his prime.

All things considered, Alvarez does need to change some recent habits, such as chasing breaking pitches out of the zone. He should be fine over the long haul, though: let’s not forget he is a 24-year-old catcher coming off a highly productive season last year.

View full article