Pete, Lindor and Soto and 500 home runs

[Cowtipper]

Outside of Clayton Kershaw reaching 3,000 Ks in 2025, players hitting the big milestones (3,000 H, 500 HR, 3,000 Ks) will be few and far between these next few seasons. However, the current batch of stars are advancing as a clump, so within the decade we should see a spate of guys getting to a variety of meaningful numbers.

500 home runs is one of them. Theoretically, Giancarlo Stanton could reach 500 in 2026, as he is just 47 away, but recent history suggests that is unlikely. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are both young enough and close enough (more than halfway there) that it is worth keeping an eye on their progress. Juan Soto isn't yet halfway there, but his trajectory of greatness makes him look like a great candidate for 500 and beyond.

There is a projection tool called Bill James' Favorite Toy, which as its name suggests can be used to project a player's performance down the line. Let's see how modern players, including Alonso, Lindor and Soto, look on the quest to 500. The projections and odds were calculated entirely using the Favorite Toy.

Aaron Judge: 602 projected home runs, 97% chance of reaching 500

Kyle Schwarber: 582 projected, 97% chance

Juan Soto: 572 projected, 78% chance

Shohei Ohtani: 570 projected, 82% chance

Giancarlo Stanton: 540 projected, 97% chance

Manny Machado: 509 projected, 58% chance

Bryce Harper: 498 projected, 49% chance

Pete Alonso: 492 projected, 47% chance

Mike Trout: 482 projected, 31% chance

Eugenio Suarez: 477 projected, 37% chance

Matt Olson: 470 projected, 36% chance

Francisco Lindor: 453 projected, 29% chance

Freddie Freeman: 439 projected, 5% chance

Jose Ramirez: 429 projected, 17% chance

Marcell Ozuna: 416 projected, 9% chance

Nolan Arenado: 415 projected, 0% chance

Mookie Betts: 405 projected, 5% chance

Paul Goldschmidt: 405 projected, 0% chance

Salvador Perez: 371 projected, 0% chance

George Springer: 370 projected, 0% chance

Andrew McCutchen: 362 projected, 0% chance

Carlos Santana: 360 projected, 0% chance

Nick Castellanos: 344 projected, 0% chance

Marcus Semien: 323 projected, 0% chance

Jose Abreu: 270 projected, 0% chance

So there's a chance at 500 for all three!

Juan Soto: 572 projected, 78% chance

Pete Alonso: 492 projected, 47% chance

Francisco Lindor: 453 projected, 29% chance

[MFS62]

My [CROSSOUT]crystal ball [/CROSSOUT]projection tool says Freddie F'n Freeman WILL reach 500 home runs, and the last 50 will all be against the Mets.

Later