batmagadanleadoff

Jesus H. Christ on a popsicle. The Mets have practically baseball's best record. They were baseball's best team over the last 2/3 of last season. They just took the season series from the fucking Dodgers. All this with their best hitter, Juan Soto, a shell of himself up to now. With Francisco Alvarez hitting like Bud Harrelson and Mark Vientos playing like the pre-breakout version of himself. What more do you want? Steve Cohen and David Stearns are building an elite perennial WS contender as we speak.

Frayed Knot wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Lecture on how hitting w/RiSP isn't predictive coming up soon. I was right!! That's right. And you were right because you're wrong. Always whining, eight times a game, even in blowout Mets wins, about the runners who were LOB. Day in and day out. As if every inning is supposed to be a Gorilla Gas-House never-ending conga line around the basepaths.

Frayed Knot wrote: Lecture on how hitting w/RiSP isn't predictive coming up soon. Of course it's fucking predictive. Just like team runs scored is.predictive. It's just not a fucking skill. Hitting with RISP isn't a skill independent of regular hitting. It's all just hitting. Batters get hits but whether the hits come with the bases empty or with RISP is just fucking randomness.

Frayed Knot wrote: Does it seem to anyone else that Gary often knows it's a strikeout just a split second before you do? ... iow, that the audio is just a partial second ahead of the video? Yes. I thought of this yesterday, too. As if the audio is fraction of a second ahead of the video.

=Centerfield post_id=194375 time=1748975527 user_id=65] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=194371 time=1748973634 user_id=68] Check out his splits. Nimmo's OPS is almost 150 points higher on the road. Citi Field ranks as about the most extreme pitcher's Park in baseball for offense, hits and homers. Citi Field is even tougher on hitters in April and May, when hard hit balls simply die in the outfield. It's colder at Citi Field than most anywhere else in the five boroughs until the Summer warm weather arrives. Maybe thats part of why the Mets sucked last year until about Memorial Day. Maybe that's why Soto started so slowly.

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=194371 time=1748973634 user_id=68] Check out his splits. Nimmo's OPS is almost 150 points higher on the road. Citi Field ranks as about the most extreme pitcher's Park in baseball for offense, hits and homers. Citi Field is even tougher on hitters in April and May, when hard hit balls simply die in the outfield. It's colder at Citi Field than most anywhere else in the five boroughs until the Summer warm weather arrives. Maybe thats part of why the Mets sucked last year until about Memorial Day. Maybe that's why Soto started so slowly.

Of course, when I referenced Soto's slow start, I meant slow start for Soto. With his practically league-leading walks, he's still an asset. A lineup top to bottom comprised of players with Soto's current numbers is a lineup good enough to contend.

Check out his splits. Nimmo's OPS is almost 150 points higher on the road. Citi Field ranks as about the most extreme pitcher's Park in baseball for offense, hits and homers. Citi Field is even tougher on hitters in April and May, when hard hit balls simply die in the outfield. It's colder at Citi Field than most anywhere else in the five boroughs until the Summer warm weather arrives. Maybe thats part of why the Mets sucked last year until about Memorial Day. Maybe that's why Soto started so slowly.

Youse can all go to sleep. The Mets don't lose when Lindor homers. You might even say that the Mets are ON TRACK to win tonight's game. Later, I'll show youse how I determined that the Mets are ON TRACK to win tonight. What a great idea this is. Ten Bullets of Cool, I give myself.

=whippoorwill post_id=194240 time=1748891562 user_id=79] Or for half an idea: not bitching

Not bitching about Trump Great. So he's a .MAGA scumbag, too. I still remember him calling Ceetar a "snowflake". You just moved the goalposts.

Eff him. Pompous ass who contorted himself into pretzels trying to pass off the dullest and most obvious as Bill Jamesian-like groundbreaking baseball discoveries. New ideas? Like what? Name one. Name half of one.

Let's say you get $1 for every time the coin comes up tails. You get nothing if it comes up heads. Flip it six times in a row, you get heads every time. You've made no money. Flip it six more times, odds are you'll make $3. Because the odds suggest you'll do better than 0%. If the past was a statistical oddity, chances are you'll do better going forward. I never said there would be six tails in a row. Again, you're arguing points no one is making. But you don't need a whole analysis of past results to figure this out. Your findings are irrelevant. Expecting three heads in the next six coin flips has nothing to do with past results. The expected outcome of any future coin flip is independent of past results and so, has nothing to do with the results of past coin flips. Are you saying that the Mets will hit well with RISP going forward because up until now, they've been hitting crappy with RISP? If so, that's wrong. IF the Mets hit well with RISP going forward, it will be because the Mets are a good hitting team, period. Not because "they're due". Educate me again how clutch is not repeatable. I feel like I missed that. So then you do think that clutch hitting is a skill, and that batters could hit better whenever they fucking feel like it.

OPS with RISP is not a "junk stat". Whatever that means. It's a measure of real results that have taken place. No one ever said it's predictive of future results, but it is absolutely a record of what has taken place so far. And it matters because performance with RISP obviously affects results. Getting one hit each inning is going to result in less runs than getting nine hits in a row. OPS with RISP is useful. It's unquestionable that the Mets, in 2025, have been dreadful in "clutch" situations. But I think you and I both agree, that there's no reason to think that this will continue. This bodes well for the Mets. As their OPS with RISP eventually trends toward their overall OPS, they should score more runs. Batting with RISP is randomness. Players can't hit "better" whenever they feel like it. If they could, they'd hardly ever make outs. The only times they'd make outs is when some outfielder pulls a Ron Swoboda-like World Series highlight reel catch. That you can measure something doesn't make the measurement meaningful. I could care less if the book I'm reading weighs 32 ounces when all along, I thought it weighed 28 ounces. If you flip a coin six times and it comes up "heads" all six times, the coin is not suddenly due to come up tails on the next flip. The coin is just as likely to come up either heads or tails on the seventh flip. This is all just randomness. Juan Soto has been OPSplussing in the 150s and higher in each if his last few full seasons. But he's currently at 118 OPS+ one third into this season. It's unlikely that Soto will match his recent OPS+s this year. He's already too deep in a hole. He's not "due" to overcompensate the rest of the way to match his more recent production. That might happen, could happen, but it's extremely unlikely. A 118 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at, but that's not who Juan Soto is. The Mets offense hasn't been as efficient as expected. So you went and found out that they're not hitting in the clutch. Big deal. That's randomness. Of course the Mets aren't hitting. What did you think you were gonna find? That the Mets are at the top of most hitting categories? I remain unimpressed.

Updating after three wins this weekend. The Mets are 9th overall in MLB in OPS (.730), but are 13th in runs scored. Their 4.31 runs per game is exactly league average. With RISP, the Mets' OPS drops to .676, good for 22nd in MLB (but higher than the 24th ranking they had when we started this discussion). That statistic is probably why they're league average in runs scored, despite a better than average OPS. Of note, their BABIP with RISP is a league worst .236. Which suggests they're getting really unlucky, or not hitting the ball hard, or likely both. Their overall BABIP is .286 (19th in MLB). If you don't believe that clutch hitting is some repeatable trait, these numbers are encouraging. Hopefully the Mets numbers with RISP will trend toward their overall numbers, and the offense will gradually improve. For what it's worth, the Mets OPS with RISP in 2024 was .809, tied for 2nd in MLB. I'm not sure what your point here is. Of course, teams should hope to drive in baserunners that are in scoring position. Teams should strive to score as many runs as possible. But RISP BAs are not repeatable skills, and not predictive of anything. RISP BAs are not comsistent from year to year. BAs with RISP are nothing more than a fancy term for the nonsensical and non-existing old wive's tale that is "clutch hitting". Teams that hit well with nobody on base will come around to hit well with RISP, given enough time (i.e., given a larger sample size). Good hitting teams will eventually hit well with RISP. Good hitting teams will hit well. It's just as important to hit well with nobody in scoring position so that those batters that reached base with nobody on can, in turn, become the runners ISP that are driven in and come around to score. With two outs and nobody on base, two players hit back to back ground rule doubles to produce a run. Each of the two hits in that sequence is as equally important as the other. Without the first double, there is no run and no RBI. This is all nothing more than randomness. You might as well be writing long posts concluding that teams that score the most runs tend to win the most games.

=kcmets post_id=193720 time=1748285753 user_id=53] Are runners on first included in that percentage? If so, it is not RISP but rather just plain old LOB.

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=193463 time=1747973851 user_id=68] =Centerfield post_id=193458 time=1747954622 user_id=65] =kcmets post_id=193452 time=1747938472 user_id=53] I was just sorting the Team RISP for a minute, I know that can be scary, and the Mets have the 7th worst OPS in the NL. The Dodgers are best and their OPS is a whopping .272 points higher. Can one say that considering the two teams have the 'same' record that the Mets are pretty damn lucky so far?

=Centerfield post_id=190517 time=1745420302 user_id=65] 3.73 ERA vs. 3.27 ERA. Poor Phillies are trying to avoid the sweep and have to go into the game with a pitching disadvantage.

Edgy MD wrote: My shortlist for Casey portrayers includes: Armin Shimmerman Sean Penn Willem Defoe Billy Crystal, who already kind of played him in The Princess Bride[/i Dustin Hoffman]. If he was alive, Burgess Meredith would nailed it.

This fans meeting better include every fan. That means the rally guy, too.

Just, whatever youse do, please don't boo Juan Soto. Anything but that. Otherwise, youse are liable to give the new Pope a heart attack or something. Oh my God! They're gonna boo Juan Soto. They're really gonna boo Juan Soto.

All three games are National broadcasts so after tonight's game, FOX and ESPN will slobber all over Ohtani and the reigning champs.

=Centerfield post_id=193458 time=1747954622 user_id=65] =kcmets post_id=193452 time=1747938472 user_id=53] I was just sorting the Team RISP for a minute, I know that can be scary, and the Mets have the 7th worst OPS in the NL. The Dodgers are best and their OPS is a whopping .272 points higher. Can one say that considering the two teams have the 'same' record that the Mets are pretty damn lucky so far?

Nimmo with the rare day off. McNeil also sits. Tough lefty on the hill. Baty, though, plays.

Frayed Knot wrote: Keith: Mets need a baserunner Me: What the fuck good is that going to do? [media=youtube]RgZZBwG7slY[/media]