smg58

But breaking balls break late in the high altitude, which is why none of the sinker-ballers the Rockies have tried to bring in have ever worked out.

I wonder how much of the home/road differential for teams like the Rockies/Rangers/Phillies is the park itself, and how much of it is players modifying their swing to try to take advantage of the ballpark. If it's the latter, you can make a case for players in those parks screwing themselves more when they go on the road than they help themselves at home. I do think teams in pitchers' parks (or at least in normal parks) have an advantage as a result, because players used to hitting pop flies into the stands go into a place like RFK or Petco and don't know what to do.As much as I prefer parks where you have to earn your home runs, I was in Philly a couple of weeks ago and I have to say the new park is way more aesthetically appealing than the Vet.Ah, Guzman. Early in the year, the Nats were up by a run on Atlanta with the bases loaded and two outs in the ninth. The Braves batter hit a grounder to Guzman, who promptly threw it over the first baseman's head to let the tying and go-ahead (ultimately winning) runs in on the play that should have ended the game. Even fans in towns who haven't had baseball for a while tend to have long memories for plays like that -- especially when the culprit has a .188 BA, a .227 OBP, and a .273 SLG. I'd hate him too.

I'm not sure what the difference is in level between the rookie level (Gulf Coast and Kingsport) and short-season level (the Cyclones). I guess it has something to do with the draft, but I'll defer to somebody who knows more. The Hagerstown Suns are low A and the St. Lucie Mets are high A.Gaby is making Humber's situation a lot easier to deal with. You win some, you lose some, I guess.

Actually, I'm completely confused by the Red Sox' treatment of Youkilis. He has a higher OPS than Graffanino and Mueller can play some second, so unless his defense is really bad, I don't see why he hasn't gotten more of a chance. And the rumors of Lowell being brought in only confuse things further. I don't see the value of blocking younger guys with veterans who aren't better. (People interested in Alan Embree, take note.) And that has happened here too -- Padilla should have been brought up way before he was -- but I see no evidence that Reyes and Wright were held back.The Matsui situation was bungled on so many levels there's no point in going into it anymore. I don't see it as though they should have committed to rebuilding, though, because giving Scutaro a chance or grabbing a cheap second baseman would have meant having the money to make a real bid for Vladi.

If today's start makes Ishii desirable to somebody, I'd move him in a heartbeat. As for Glavine, freeing most of the $10M currently earmarked for him next year would be worth any risk to this season. But people have to want them, too. And in Glavine's case, he'd have to agree to it.Which brings us to your last point. Would I go for broke for this year? No, but I wouldn't dismiss our chances too quickly, as there's only one NL team who is clearly better. I think if Trachsel can be ready by mid-August, he and Heilman wouldn't be a downgrade from Glavine and Ishii.

Hernandez got off to a good start, then injuries caught up with him. That's a dangerous trend to start if your position is catcher. He still has things to recommend him, but I'd proceed with caution.

I'd do it if they'd do it. But what happens if they insist on Looper?

Schneider's still a good ways away from free agency, and his availability would depend on whether the Nats have another option.The best free agent catcher is Ramon Hernandez, who just happens to be in town right now.The other options are rookies. Shoppach has been mentioned a lot, but the Indians have Ryan Garko (.858 OPS at AAA) blocked by Victor Martinez, the Marlins have Josh Willingham (monster numbers at AAA that I can no longer find, but he's on the DL) blocked by Paul LoDuca, the Rangers have Gerald Laird (.893 OPS at AAA), and the Dodgers have both Dioner Navarro (.781 OPS at AAA, but a .376 OBP and at 21 he's a few years younger than the other guys) and Russell Martin (.848 OPS at AA). It's definitely a buyer's market here, plus going for youth at catcher would free up money to pursue guys at the other positions of need.

Oh, and thanks for the Trachsel update. I was wondering if he had any sort of timetable.

So Humber is set back a year. We do have enough minor league pitching to absorb the loss, but you always hate to see a guy who looks set for the majors get stopped like this.On the other hand, he hasn't really pitched well all year, so I don't know if this is necessarily a shock. As anybody who remember Gregg Jefferies and Generation K can tell you, there's no such thing as a "can't-miss" prospect. Plus, the emergence of Gaby Hernandez definitely softens the blow.

I'm with you on the first baseman with a bat, although we can't overlook catcher either. 2B is probably not as high a priority, but there might be guys out there who'd help us without costing any of our major bargaining chips.

The Pirates have too many infielders already. I'm not sure how this benefits them. But now I'm wondering if the whole league will wind up involved in the deal.

It's not logistically feasible for me, but I'll be there in spirit. And have the radio on in the office.

I like Lopez too, but right now he's the Reds' MVP (such as a team that bad could have one). He'd be the one guy I'd rebuild around. Plus, you always have to consider the ballpark with the Reds. Lopez would still be solid here, but not a worldbeater, and the Reds would have to ask for the world for him, assuming they'd be crazy enough to add him to their likely fire sale. I mentioned Freel because his game is speed and getting on base. Leadoff hitters who can get on close to 40% of the time AND steal are rare, and the fact that he isn't a power hitter makes me more confident he could reproduce his Cincy numbers here. I'm not sure he's proven enough that I'd give up a lot for him, but I'm also not sure the Reds value him enough that I'd have to.

I have to admit that one caught me a little off guard. I was afraid to post anything for a couple of days.

What, you don't think Nannini makes up the difference between Choi and Derrek Lee?Why do the Red Sox need Lowell and his contract? I really can't see them blocking Youkilis any further for Lowell's sake. And there's the minor detail that when you factor in the ballparks, the DH, and the AL East line-ups, Arroyo is having the better year. It makes no sense at all for the Red Sox. Plus, the Marlins currently have Josh Willingham blocked by Paul LoDuca at catcher, so adding another AAA catcher doesn't make all that much sense for them either. And I could see them keeping Burroughs as a reserve and moving Cabrera to third to clear their outfield logjam, but Burroughs has had enough chances at this point.I'm inclined to believe Epstein on this one.

And there goes Seo's trade value. Great.

I'm guessing if Minaya really wanted Sosa that badly he'd have been easy to get, so I never took those rumors too seriously.How about Looper to the Sox for Shoppach?The free agent market for closers for the offseason is a bit fuzzy right now. I'd be surprised if the Orioles let Ryan test the market, but you never know. The Padres' have enough depth in the pen to part with Hoffman, but that would be a PR disaster. Wagner will be a free agent for sure. Percival and Wickman might retire. Guardado and Baez have options, so unless they get traded to teams who don't need them to close or have closers on the DL, I don't see them being on the market. So there might be an element of risk involved in trading Looper, or there might be the opportunity to either bring him back or get somebody better.

It's always critical to factor in the ballpark when evaluating a player. Adam Dunn's road OPS, both for this season and since 2002, hovers around .840, so it would be naive to expect more than that if he came here. Raul Ibanez could give a team that much, but something tells me the Mariners would get a lot less for him than the Reds would get for Dunn.Getting back to Cameron, the Mets couldn't have expected more from him offensively than they've gotten, although I do think his OPS for the year will wind up closer to .800 than .900. What Rottblatt does show is that the Mets do not need to trade him, and should absolutely demand value if somebody asks for him.

My first priority would be to convince Matsui to be bought out of next year's contract so that he can return to Japan. Unless there's a team we could actually deal him to. Hell, maybe we could find a Japanese team who'd purchase his contract. Is that even legal?Durham's D and his health are exactly what makes him a question mark.I'd ask Cincinnati about Ryan Freel (once he gets off the DL) and Milwaukee about Billy Hall. Both of them might be like Mark Loretta a few years ago, just waiting for a team to give them a full-time position. The Mets do have middle-infield depth at AAA, that's for certain, but I don't know if we can count on Keppinger, Lambin, and Basak developing much further given their ages (25, 26, and 26). They could be good utility men, but I don't know if they're starters. Anderson Hernandez intrigues me, but if there's a chance that Reyes could get the Mets more than I think he's worth at this point, I wouldn't move him over to 2B just yet.

Perhaps Minaya knows something we don't, or perhaps he's another guy who won't do anything besides stunt the growth of more deserving prospects. Just out of curiosity, does anybody know if Tyler Yates, Grant Roberts, or Orber Moreno will ever be heard from again?

That's no good, but it's not clear that he's been right all year. Some time off might turn out to be a blessing in disguise. The Mets should be patient with this and certainly not rush him back.

I'm guessing Preston won't have the same power at RFK as he did at Coors. It doesn't hurt the Nats, because Zach Day has been awful, but I don't think it's a difference-making deal.

My apologies on mixing up the Detroit deal, but given the way Vance Wilson is hitting, Anderson Hernandez doesn't look like any less of a steal. Either way, my point was that nobody saw Hernandez' value as a prospect shooting up the way it has.My one complaint about the Ginter deal is that it highlights the problem with overloading your system with righty relievers on the bubble, as Steve Phillips loved to do and Minaya hasn't gotten away from yet. Nobody gets enough of a chance to prove themselves, there's always a "proven" mediocre veteran like Danny Graves to block the way for younger guys, and they get shuttled back and forth often enough to run out of options. As a result, pitchers like Pete and Tyler Walker and Dan Wheeler now produce for teams who gave up nothing to get them from us. And I can't help wondering if we could have kept Jason Bay had Phillips not insisted on getting back Jason Middlebrook in addition to Steve Reed.

The team has an option for Looper next year, I think at $5M. That's pricey, but before you deal Looper you better have an idea of how to fill the role next year. It's possible the Orioles will let B.J. Ryan test free agency, but I'd be pleasantly surprised if they do. Otherwise, the Mets might have to get creative. I do think Hernandez could handle the role for the balance of the season, though.The option the Mets gave Graves makes it unlikely he'd be claimed off waivers, so go ahead and demote him. How well does Padilla have to pitch?Glavine needs to be dealt. Everybody in contention is looking for pitching, so I don't see why this should be hard. The Mets don't even need to get a prospect or major leaguer of any consequence in return, if the money earmarked for Glavine can be spent elsewhere next season. (So we stick him on the Orioles, who then no longer have the payroll flexibility to re-sign Ryan...)