Why Signing Tarik Skubal Should Be A Top Priority For David Stearns, Mets This Offseason

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Frontline starting pitching has not been a strength for the New York Mets ever since Jacob deGrom exited the team following the 2022 season. They thought the problem was solved when they acquired Freddy Peralta last offseason, but it did not pan out. This offseason, the Mets have another opportunity to swing big on a pitcher who could change their fortunes, as Tarik Skubal is set to hit free agency.

The two-time Cy Young award winner will become available this winter after being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline. In eight starts with the Dodgers, Skubal owns a 2.52 ERA with a 167 ERA+. They'll obviously make a compelling offer to keep him in Los Angeles, but finances (they currently have $159.2 million dollars allotted for starting pitchers on the roster) and the impending lockout could harm their pursuit.

Skubal will have many suitors once he lands on the market, so Mets owner Steve Cohen will have to shell out more money than the rest to land Skubal. The southpaw is represented by Scott Boras, who Steve Cohen is no stranger to when it comes to negotiating on big-time players. Cohen and Boras were engaged in the Juan Soto sweepstakes before agreeing to record-setting terms.

Scott Boras is all about using past contracts to up the price on his clients and this case will be no different. Skubal will be hitting the market at age 30, the same age that Max Fried was when he signed an eight-year, $218 million dollar contract with the New York Yankees. Other comparable contracts include Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210 million dollar deal with the Washington Nationals that he signed at age 30 and Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324 million dollar deal with the Yankees that he signed at age 29.

Skubal’s injury history could affect his final price tag, but he should blow past Cole's number when all is said and done. It wouldn't be too surprising if he becomes the first pitcher to ever receive $400 million guaranteed, which is an astounding number for someone who will take the mound roughly 30 times per season if he remains healthy.

With the end of the current Major League Baseball Collective Bargaining Agreement coming up on December 1, players and big-market teams will attempt to get big money deals done quickly. In that case, Cohen will have to act quickly if he wants any chance to land his ace.

Next season, the Mets will already have three starting pitching spots locked up in Nolan McLean, Zac Thornton and Christian Scott. One of Jonah Tong and Sean Manaea will be vying for that fifth starting spot if the Mets were to land Skubal, who would be the ace lefty this team has not had since Johan Santana left the team in 2012.

That being said, long-terms deals are not usually David Stearns’ type of thing. In recent years, Stearns has been known to only do short-term, high average annual value deals, like Frankie Montas’s two-year, $34 million deal and Sean Manaea’s three-year, $75 million deal. Just like he and Cohen did for Soto, an exception will need to be made if the hope is to land the game's best pitcher in Skubal.