They Maybe Weren't So Crazy? (ST IGT 3/12)

[G-Fafif]

From nine weeks ago today:

Observations proffered by Hagin and Coleman today: --League maybe catching up to Dickey. --Murphy not a second baseman. Observation proffered by me: --I think I'm finally getting used to Wayne Hagin.

Ceetar wrote: smg58 wrote: One bad inning and the league has caught up to him? Do we really need that shit from Mets commentators? be fair now...it was two bad innings. Be even fairer. They were talking in a broader sense from throughout the spring, and included Bobby Ojeda's assessment in their own. And it wasn't deemed fatal. Dickey ain't dead by any stretch. And thank god the Mets announcers express opinions, not propaganda. Was listening to the Bravescast for a couple of innings and the entire spiel was "watch out Phillies, the Braves are awesome!" Brooks Conrad was a Gold Glover by the time they were done.

I hate to say it, but (Hagin, Coleman, Ojeda, whoever) may have been onto something here, despite the sense that the terrorists would win if we explored the idea that maybe R.A. wasn't impenetrable to the league figuring him out a little.

[smg58]

I was thinking about that myself, especially since I had the most averse reaction to it. Yes, there is evidence to back that claim up now, although I still don't think it was fair back then. I felt at the time that you could justify that kind of statement if Dickey's ERA was north of 4.50 on Memorial Day, but anything before that was premature, especially in ST. (I mean, Scott Hairston looked like a major league hitter nine weeks ago.) Unfortunately, right now it would be a good thing if Dickey can get to 4.50 by Memorial Day.

The knuckler also doesn't appear to have consistent movement the way it did last year, so I do think it's at least as much Dickey as the league as a whole.

[Ceetar]

http://mets.lohudblogs.com/2011/05/04/how-worried-should-you-be-about-dickey-not-very/

While 2010 probably had him playing above his head, I don't think it's so much the league catching up to him, though that surely plays in a bit. Guys starting the year in Buffalo don't generally get as much attention from other scouts. He also had the benefit of getting into a rhythm and feel for the pitch in the minors last year.

I'm not proclaiming to be an expert in these pitch location charts, but I looked at the location charts on fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=1245&position=P&season=2011&date=0&dh=0
and they don't seem to be a whole lot different. Although it doesn't really seem to separate the two types of knuckleballs (or the third that he's working in?)

He has thrown a couple more fastballs a game this year, but it doesn't seem to be something that's getting out of hand. But maybe it is. part of the effectiveness of a knuckleball is that everyone knows it's coming. But the more you 'think' about throwing a fastball, the more a hitter can sit on it, the more a scout can track the trend of when you're going to throw it.

I wonder if he's just overthinking it. Early on he was walking too many guys and getting in trouble, but he hasn't had the problem lately. just take the ball, and throw it. let the knuckle do the work?

[Guest Edgy DC]

To be fairerer, he said maybe. There was certainly enough data to throw a speculateve comment out there. And there's plenty more now.

The Muprhy comment had less data and was more declarative (at least as recounted here), and I think perhaps therefore less fair.