Run Jose run, actually no, can you walk please?

[metirish]

So what about Reyes, he says he justs wants to get on base, last July Willie seemed to have had enough and put Cameron batting first for a spell, for all his great speed can Jose learn how to walk, will Henderson help, in two AB's today he walked.....what are your expections for Reyes this season?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

.311 OBP or bust

[Guest sharpie]

Barry Larkin in his first full season had a .306 obp and went to .347 the next year and .375 the year after that. I dream of Jose Reyes becoming Barry Larkin.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Where is the Jose Reyes thread in which Dickshot introduced the .311 OBP stuff? I can't find it, and I'd like to refrresh myself as to the argument. Who came up with that projection of Reyes' 2006 season? Was it .311 for 2006, and was it a lifetime .311 after 2006? Dickshot (or Willets) can you locate the info or the thread before we turn it into a meme and get it wrong into the bargain?

[Frayed Knot]

I believe that number came from BP's "PECOTA" projection and it was for the 2006 season -- although I think that may have been done a while ago and they may have an updated one since.
My new BP handbook is on order so I haven't seen it or their specific numbers yet but I did read recently that PECOTA is projecting Reyes for a "breakout" season (usually defined as an increase of X% or more).

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=2127

[Guest Rotblatt]

My expectation is minor improvement in strike zone judgement. I'd take PECOTA's projection of .317 OBP and be okay with it.

I have a feeling, however, that one of these years, he's going to turn into a contact hitter and start hitting closer to .300 than .275. He's shown nothing in the minors to suggest this, although PECTOA projects him up to a .287 AVG in 2007. Call it a hunch, I guess. Or wishful thinking.

Anyway, if that happens, he'll probably have an OBP around .330 without improving his walk rate at all. Figure with some minor improvement, he could maybe get up to .340. I'd be thrilled with that at this point.

Incidentally, his highest PECOTA comp (although it's only got a 45 similarity index) is Gary Templeton, who at 23 posted the best OPS of his career, .789 on the back of a .331 OBP & a .458 SLG.

After that, Templeton didn't do much. Other comps (in descending order): Aparicio (35), Larkin (32), Guzman (28), Alfredo Griffin (26), Molitor (24), Camperaneris (23), and Damon (22).

Larkin, Molitor & Damon are the only guys who really made the jump into decent OBP's.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=2127

Thanks, Yance, but Dickshot's reference to PECOTA or whatever it was isn't there.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

It was ZiPS and source article is here:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2006_zips_projections_new_york_mets/

[Guest vtmet]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: It was ZiPS and source article is here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2006_zips_projections_new_york_mets/

something wrong with their projections when they project Daubach and Doug Mientkievitz to put up better numbers than "Urinal Ice"...

[Frayed Knot]

BTW, since we're making reference to old Jose Reyes arguments:
Pitt SS Jack Wilson; 3 years/$20 mil, starting next year ('07-'09)

Wilson has 5 yrs ML service: .263/.304/.368 - much of that 'dragged up'
by his best year in '04: .308/.335/.459 No other year breaks the .306
OBA mark.
He's been about 2 yrs older than Reyes (.277/.303/.395 career to date) at
similar stages of their careers.

Not sure what Jack is being paid this season, the last of his arb-years.
He got $1.85mil & $3.25 over the last twos so I'd guess somewhere in the
$5 range. He's a better fielder than Jose at this point and a good, though
not quite as good, baserunner.
IOW, he's a 2-yr older version of where Reyes will be entering his year 6,
assuming that Reyes gets no better over the next 3 years