3 Bold Predictions on Opening Day for the 2026 Mets

In the style of Effectively Wild's annual preseason prediction game, we've come up with three bold predictions, or hot takes if you will, for the 2026 New York Mets. Presented here in order of confidence.

3 Bold New York Mets Predictions for 2026 Season

Kodai Senga will be the Mets' best starting pitcher

I'm a big fan of Kodai Senga, and I think the Mets have been both under-appreciative of him, and have sabotaged him a little bit too. In 2026. I think everything comes together for Senga's best season as a Met. This isn't a doom-and-gloom prediction—I'm not down on Freddy Peralta or David Peterson or anyone else. We're going to do this by FanGraphs WAR, and currently Senga is listed fifth in projected fWAR at 1.5, behind Peralta at 2.6. 

Senga faded last year, after missing most of 2024, which was a common theme for the Mets rotation. With Senga though, the Mets optioned him to AAA in favor of September ERAs of 9.88 for Jonah Tong, 9.72 for David Peterson, and 8.10 for Sean Manaea. Up until the All-Star Break, the Japanese right-hander had a 1.39 ERA through 14 starts with 74 strikeouts, but in his final seven starts, he had a 6.10 ERA. He had one bad start and one good start in the minors after that to end his season.  Clearly, the Mets had little faith in him at that point, but overall his numbers in MLB have been good, and I've seen or heard nothing from the Mets to suggest last year was anything more than an anomaly, perhaps from ramping up innings after missing most of 2024. 

This year, he's starting healthy and ready to go, after having thrown 126 2/3 innings last year. The Mets, and Jeremy Hefner, had him learn the slider last year, and he used it about 6% of the time. Now Hefner is gone, and it's a fresh season. He's got a year of growth with the new pitch, and more data to use about how to mix pitches, maybe with some different input from the dugout. Senga's a real talented pitcher, with lots of weapons, and that Ghost Fork still flummoxes hitters. Of all the Mets' top six starting options, Senga's got the second lowest ERA over the last three years, behind only Nolan McLean's much smaller sample. I think McLean and Peralta will both have excellent seasons, and maybe even better stretches of games, but when the dust settles, it will be Kodai Senga who has created the most value out of that rotation. 

Brett Baty will get the most starts at second base

This one's potentially a bit more pessimistic, because I'm not sold on Marcus Semien, but ultimately I think it works out for the Mets. Currently. FanGraphs has Semien getting 637 PA at second, and Baty only 35, but with Bichette at third, and Vientos the primary backup there and at first, it seems likely Baty would be the one to replace Semien if it isn't working (barring another position switch from Jorge Polanco).

Semien is projected for a .310 wOBA, which is higher than either of his last two years. If he bounces back, great, but if he continues to decline, it's going to be harder and harder to carry him for the defense, especially if the decline there last year was age and not just fuzziness in defensive metrics. 

Baty, meanwhile, put up a .324 wOBA last year and a 111 wRC+. He got 432 PA and contributed 2.3 fWAR. A lot of that came from increased power, really driving the ball with authority. More of that will earn him more starts, which could come at Semien's expense (or, alternatively, the Bichette experiment failing could open up starts at both second and third for Baty).

Francisco Alvarez will hit 30 home runs

This is the year Alvarez puts it all together. This is his age-24 season, and his four as the regular catcher. The 2025 campaign was his best year so far, and if there's improvement that sticks, he could be even better. ZiPS projects him for 21 HR, which is the most optimistic, but that's over 118 games. If he can get to 130 or 140 starts with some DH time, 30 homers might be in the cards, and that extra power in the Mets would really lengthen the bottom of the lineup.

His Statcast metrics have been trending up in that he's hitting the ball harder, with more exit velocity and a better launch angle. He's swinging at meatballs more often, and swinging at first pitches and out of the zone pitches less. In general, it seems like he might actually have a little bit of a plan up there as compared to previous years, and there's no reason to think he can't display even more improvement in 2026.

What are your hot takes for the Mets' 2026 season? Let us know in the comments below!